Year after year, the WAC has continually failed when matched up head-to-head against the other 10 conferences in college football. In 2007, the league won just eight of 31 non- conference battles with a 12-19 ATS record. Those numbers fell even further when matched against BCS teams, at 3-16 SU and a 7-12 ATS mark.
Last season, the nine clubs gained more SU victories with a 12-23 record, but covered only 13 of the 35 games for a 37% winning percentage. Against the top six conferences, the WAC sported 5-14 marks both SU and ATS.
Taking it a step further, the league is a combined 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in bowl games the last two years after going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in 2006, the year Boise State upset Oklahoma and Hawaii knocked off Arizona State.
Will the conference pick up its play in '09? Seven of the nine teams return their starting quarterback, after more than half had to replace their signal- caller heading into last season. In addition, the top six rushers in terms of yards per game also return, so the WAC does have a fighting chance to regain some of its lost stature.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
9) NEW MEXICO STATE - For a team that went 2-14 in conference play the last two years (7-9 ATS), the Aggies have been somewhat competitive, as six of the 14 defeats came by a combined 27 points. Still, they are 1-5 ATS in non- conference play since '07.
Offense - The Chase Holbrook/Chris Williams era is over as the two ended their careers as the school's all-time leaders in passing and receiving. The focus under new head coach DeWayne Walker will be shifted to the running game, even though the offensive line under was in pass-block mode the last few years under Hal Mumme. The scoring average dropped from 25 ppg to 17 in Mumme's first year in '05 when the club switched to a full-fledged passing attack, so look for the Aggies to bottom out again with another scheme change.
Defense - Walker comes over from UCLA, where he was the Bruins' defensive coordinator the last three years. He'll also act as the Aggies' DC in his initial season as head coach. The club switches from a 3-4 to a 4-3 after four years of allowing an average of 191 rushing ypg on 4.8 ypc. Last year, only four of the top nine tacklers returned. This season, six of the top nine come back to Las Cruces, so improvement is expected.
Outlook - New Mexico State made a great hire with Walker but the wins won't come in '09, especially with just 10 returning starters. Expect a 1-11 record and a winless WAC season.
8) IDAHO - The Vandals bring back 44 lettermen this year. Unfortunately, the bulk of them have seen the club win just three games the last two years combined. Idaho was 7-3-1 to the OVER last season, and could accomplish that feat again in '09.
Offense - This unit actually regressed last year, averaging just 17.5 ppg in 11 FBS games despite bringing back 10 starters. Seven come back in '09 including Nathan Enderle, who doubled his TD passes from 10 to 20. If Enderle continues to develop, the Vandals could have their highest scoring output since '02, especially since one-third of their opponents come into '09 without last year's starting cornerbacks.
Defense - The Vandals finished 117th nationally in scoring, giving up 42.8 ppg. They went into last year without five of their top six tacklers, and then their best defender, safety Shiloh Keo, was lost after four games. Keo is back but they will be without their three best players from the front seven.
Outlook - This looks to be another dismal season, as the Vandals will repeat last year's numbers of two overall wins and one conference victory.
7) HAWAII - The Warriors dropped to seven wins from 12, but for a team that lost Colt Brennan, 13 other starters and its head coach, getting to the postseason for a third straight year was certainly a notable achievement. They are 2-6 ATS out of conference the last two years, however.
Offense - This unit struggled the first seven games at 19 ppg but the Warriors had to face the likes of Florida, Oregon State, Boise State, San Jose State and Louisiana Tech during that span. They did average 30 ppg in the final seven, as Greg Alexander threw 14 TDs with just three interceptions. The o- line was a mess the entire year, allowing 57 sacks, but with Navy and UNLV replacing the Gators and Beavers on the schedule, the offense will average a TD more than its 24.6 mark a year ago.
Defense - Don't be suckered into thinking this defense will be fine with two returning starters just because last year's unit allowed fewer points per game in league play than the '07 club when only four starters returned. That defense brought back eight of its top 14 tacklers while only two of the top 13 return in '09. The entire back seven has a grand total of four career starts, with one player accounting for all of those.
Outlook - As is the case with many teams in the WAC this year, the offense will improve but the defense will be a sieve. Hawaii games going over the total will be the norm despite a 5-8 record and three WAC victories.
6) UTAH STATE - Even though the Aggies garnered three conference wins for the first time since joining the WAC in '05, Brent Guy was let go and replaced by Utah defensive coordinator Gary Andersen. Utah State is 11-5 ATS in league play the last two years, and a perfect 4-0 off a SU win the last three seasons.
Offense - Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin installed the no-huddle attack this spring and from all indications, the offense could flourish if Diondre Borel continues to shine. The QB led the team in rushing, and completed 59% of his throws over the second half of the season. Not only did the Aggies average 31 ppg the final five games (19 ppg in the first seven), they finished third nationally in red zone efficiency at a 94% clip. Even more shocking, the Aggies allowed seven TDs on fumble and interception returns.
Defense - New schemes also define the defense, as man coverage and extensive blitz packages will be the norm. For the unit to be successful, the secondary must rise to the challenge. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of depth and experience behind cornerback Kejon Murphy and safety James Brindley. The defense allowed 91 fewer ypg in league play last year (than in '07) but that was with 10 of the top 11 tacklers returning. This year, just five of the top 11 come back to Logan.
Outlook - Another club that will put up the points but allow more than its share. The Aggies win four games for the first time since '02 with another 3-5 conference mark.
5) SAN JOSE STATE - The Spartans dropped four of their final five games (after a 3-0 start in league play) to finish 6-6. Still, they have been a great bet at home, at 11-4 ATS there over the last three years.
Offense - Kyle Reed connected on 72% of his throws with a 139 QB rating his first six games, but those numbers dipped to 49% and 92 in his next four. The reason? Two of the top three wideouts were lost for the season after four games and the o-line was banged up for most of the year. San Jose State ended up last in the WAC in scoring and total offense. If the unit stays healthy and JC transfer Lamon Muldrow is the real deal at running back, the Spartans will have the most improved offense in the country.
Defense - The "D" allowed 218 rushing ypg and recorded just eight sacks in the final five games after giving up only 87 ypg with 25 sacks in the first seven. Despite the fallout, the Spartans still finished second in league play in scoring and total defense. They also bring back five of the top seven tacklers in '09. The major question mark comes at cornerback, where the expected starters are two sophomores (six career tackles) replacing a pair of NFL draftees.
Outlook - The Spartans will be tested early with games against USC, Utah and Stanford. They should win five of their last nine to finish 5-7 and 4-4 in league play.
4) FRESNO STATE - The Bulldogs went 7-6 SU, but just 2-11 ATS including an 0-9 stretch from September 13 to November 15. They have been one of the worst ATS teams the last three years at 11-26, and are 5-27-1 ATS off a SU loss the last seven seasons.
Offense - The strength of the offense is the running game, which features three backs that combined for 19 TDs and a 5.9 ypc average. A new QB must be found after three years of Tom Brandstater, an April draft choice of the Denver Broncos, under center. His senior season wasn't memorable, but the new quarterback will have zero career attempts, along with two new offensive tackles protecting him.
Defense - Fresno State's defense has given up an average of 28, 27 and 31 ppg over the last three years. Not only that, the team has allowed 64 passing TDs with just 14 picks over that span. The Bulldogs also finished 108th in the country vs. the run in '08, giving up 210 ypg on 5.6 ypc. Thirteen of the top 16 tacklers return, but the unit is still very inexperienced with only three players sporting more than 15 career starts.
Outlook - The last three times the Bulldogs won seven games or less overall, they went 5-2, 6-2, and 6-2 in conference play the following season. They won't win six in '09, but a 7-5 regular season record (4-4 in the WAC) and a third straight bowl game is possible.
3) LOUISIANA TECH - In two short years, Derek Dooley has transformed a 3-10 club to a WAC contender. The Bulldogs, who won eight games for the first time this decade, are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs the last two years. However, they'll be favored in every home game this season except vs. Boise State.
Offense - Nine starters return to an offense that averaged 30 ppg over the final eight games. The team's best weapon is a ground attack that dominated WAC defenses to the tune of 223 ypg on 5.2 ypc. Ross Jenkins supplanted Taylor Bennett at the QB spot and threw just three interceptions in 174 attempts. On the other hand, he didn't look sharp in the spring game (6-16 for 46 yards and two picks) so he could be pushed by the backups come the fall.
Defense - Louisiana Tech allowed 23.7 ppg last year, 18 ppg less than its 41.7 mark in '06. The unit was lit up for 31 points or more in four of the final five regular season games, so there is still work to be done. Not many teams were able to run on the Bulldogs, as they gave up over 3.0 ypc only four times in 13 games. Fifteen of the top 19 tacklers return, so look for better numbers after bringing back just five of the top 14 a year ago.
Outlook - This team will be stronger than last year's club if Jenkins can match his '08 numbers. If not, the Bulldogs will be playing a lot of close, low-scoring games. Expect another 7-5 regular season record, but this time six wins in the WAC instead of five.
2) NEVADA - The Wolf Pack have gone bowling four straight years after an eight-year drought. They are 15-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last five years, but just 4-9 ATS off a SU win in the last two campaigns.
Offense - Head coach Chris Ault wants to work more passing plays into an offense that ranked first in the WAC with 509 yards per game. It's a strange decision considering Colin Kaepernick has a career completion mark of only 54% and the top two pass-catchers graduated. Nevada will certainly not dismiss the running game since it sports the leading conference rusher each of the last two years. If Kaepernick improves, and either Brandon Wimberly or Maurice Patterson emerges at WR, this offense could be lethal.
Defense - Defensive coordinator Nigel Burton switched the team from a 3-4 to a 4-3 last year and the results were spectacular. The Wolf Pack allowed just 72 rushing yards per game on 2.6 ypc in league play, along with 26 sacks. They ranked last vs. the pass but that's only because the secondary saw 42 passes per game. More importantly, the unit finished third in QB completion percentage at 54.5%. Seven starters return and the defense should be even stronger in the second year of the system.
Outlook - Nevada is clearly the second-best team in the conference. The only weaknesses are the greenness of the receivers and Kaepernick's accuracy and health (he missed the spring game with an ankle injury). Look for the 'Pack to win 10 games for the first time since 1991 with a 7-1 league mark.
1) BOISE STATE - The Broncos' undefeated season came to an end in the Poinsettia Bowl, as TCU scored 17 of the game's final 20 points to win 17-16. They are 46-2 SU in conference play but only 28-20 ATS the last six years.
Offense - The offense will still be dangerous even without Ian Johnson and Jeremy Childs. Quarterback Kellen Moore now has a year under his belt and the o-line, which returned a mere 17% of its '07 starts, brings back 62% from last year. In addition, WR Titus Young (44 catches in '07) should regain his starting spot after being suspended for much of last year. The Broncos have not led the league in total offense since '04 but that drought ends this season.
Defense - It was Boise State's defense that made last year so special, as the unit allowed just 12.6 ppg and 4.3 yards per play. The Broncos gave up just seven offensive TDs in the eight league games and allowed opposing WAC teams to reach the red zone a grand total of 10 times. Seven starters are gone, but nine of the top 13 tacklers return.
Outlook - The Broncos roll to another 12-0 regular season mark but will face a challenge from one of the MWC teams for a spot in a BCS bowl.
